4 Reasons You Shouldn’t Buy a Starlink Anytime Soon
Even with limited numbers of available units in the market, Elon Musk’s ambitious Starlink project is one of the world’s most talked-about satellite internet projects. Starlink promises incredible speed, low-latency connections, and unparalleled global coverage.
With such promises, it’s not surprising that many people want a piece of it. From online gaming to 4K video streaming, the things you can do with Starlink’s projected capabilities are endless. But is it a good idea to get a Starlink right now?
Why Is Everyone Talking About Starlink?
If you aren’t up to speed, you’re probably wondering why everyone is talking about Starlink. Besides being Elon Elon Musk’s satellite internet project, what’s the big deal about it?How does Starlink work, andhow does it compare to other satellite internet services?
In summary, Elon Musk is attempting to build a satellite internet service on a scale never seen before. Starlink is designed to provide internet service globally, including the most rural fringes on Earth. Whether you’re in downtown New York or the middle of the Sahara Desert, Starlink says it will be there for you—with lightning speed.
The plan is to gradually ramp up Starlink’s download speed to as much as 10Gbps. That is an awe-inspiring speed by all standards. SpaceX, the company that manages Starlink, plans to launch around 42,000 satellites to make this a reality. As tempting as getting a Starlink terminal might be, there’s more to it.
4 Reasons You Shouldn’t Buy a Starlink Yet
If you are interested in Starlink and have the money to get one, there are a lot of variables and questions to consider before pulling out your credit card. Considering the satellite internet service is still in its infant stages, there are a lot of concerns about its promises.
We’ve sieved through some of these concerns and put together four reasons you shouldn’t buy a Starlink right now.
1. The Math Doesn’t Add Up
As of May 2022, Starlink could boast around 2,400 satellites in low earth orbit. That’s an impressive number but not good enough for Starlink’s ambitious plans, which would ideally require 42,000 satellites. There’s nothing easy about shooting 42,000 satellites into space—it is rocket science!
So, can SpaceX launch enough satellites into space in time to match its rapidly growing user base? How fast can it launch this number of satellites to achieve its global availability objectives? This is the first hurdle that Starlink must overcome, but there’s no clear evidence it can do that right away.
If we go by that 42,000 target number, it means SpaceX has only achieved 5.7 percent of its target. If we go by Starlink’s early-days projection of 10,000 to 12,000 satellites instead, it means the company has only achieved around 20 percent of its target volume.
Irrespective of which of its projection you use, Starlink is far from having enough satellites to service millions of people. If SpaceX somehow overcomes the time hurdle and gets around 12,000 satellites into space fast enough, there’s still another math that doesn’t add up—bandwidth.
The advertised minimum download speed for Starlink is 100 Mbps. Even if Starlink puts 12,000 satellites in orbit in a very short time, the combined bandwidth from all those satellites would likely not be enough to support at least 5 million users at a 100 Mbps download speed. 5 million is a conservative estimate given that Starlink is already making inroads to around 32 countries.
Consequently, Starlink’s 100 Mbps minimum speed might not really be achievable anytime soon. Don’t get this wrong; accordingto Ookla, Starlink currently has speeds as high as 191 Mbps in some areas of the US.
However, some areas get much less speed, and you canexpect it to fall further as more users join the network. You might want to rethink if you are hoping to get anything close to the advertised speed right now.
Sure, not every user will be online at once, so Starlink might be able to juggle bandwidth. However, the advertised download speed might still be unachievable for many users. If you get 30 to 60 Mbps, it is still fast. But is it logical to pay Starlink’s $599 equipment price and $110 monthly subscription for a speed you could get somewhere else with less baggage?
2. Starlink’s Pricing Is Not Yet Stable
When SpaceX first made Starlink user terminals available for sale, the cost of producing each Starlink terminal was $3,000. At the time, the company sold each Starlink terminal for $499. This meant Starlink terminals were being sold to the public at a loss.
By early 2021, the company brought down the cost of production to $1,500 per unit. Asreported by CNBC, by April 2021, SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell announced that the company was able to cut the cost further down to $1,300 per unit. According to Shotwell, the ultimate goal is to reduce production costs to as low as a few hundred dollars per unit.
There’s a strong possibility of a significant price decrease as SpaceX keeps pushing down the production cost of Starlink terminals. As reported byArs Technica, in June 2021, Elon Musk said SpaceX planned to reduce the price of Starlink terminals to around $300 to $250.
Perhaps a subtle hint on just how low the prices could fall is Elon Musk’s repeated emphasis on the “rural market.” An example would be Starlink’s push into the rural African market where the average purchasing power is far from being enough to secure a Starlink unit at its current $599 price tag.
If you weigh Starlink’s current price against its unique value offering at the moment, it might make sense to wait a bit to see how lower production costs affect retail prices.
3. Bad Weather Is Currently a Problem for Starlink
Current models of Starlink terminals go into a thermal shutdown once the weather gets too hot. SpaceX says Starlink will stop working once the temperature hits 122 °F (50 °C) and restart again once the temperature drops to 104 °F.
This is an immediate problem for people living in areas with high temperatures. It is a limitation that could effectively render Starlink useless during periods of high temperature.
It’s not just hot weather, Starlink has an ice and snow problem as well. Snow buildup can affect the general quality of service you get from your terminal. While Starlink comes with a snow melting technology (the dish gives off heat to melt snow), the technology is still imperfect.
Even the latest iterations of Starlink terminals still have these weather problems. However, each new iteration seems to come with improved ways to handle weather challenges. This means potential customers have a choice; join in and get terminals prone to weather-related problems or wait a bit for newer models that better tackle the weather problems.
4. Starlink Still Needs a Lot of Work
The Starlink project is very impressive. However, it still needs a lot of work. Since it is still a product under development, many variables are unaccounted for. Sometimes these little issues cause a lot of service disruptions.
According to DownDetector, a website that tracks service outages, there were four major Starlink outages in the first five months of 2021. At the time of writing, multiple users complained of either total or partial outages in some areas of the US.
In comparison, DownDetector reported no major outages for HughesNet in 2021. HughesNet is also a satellite internet service provider.
A Little Wait Could be Worth It
Even with all its shortfalls, Starlink represents an audacious project that has the potential to change the face of the internet-from-space industry completely.
If you’re hungry for a new internet service experience, have the money to spend, and don’t mind a few early-day challenges, then, by all means, sign up for a Starlink unit. However, if, like many users, you want Starlink because of the long list of promises on paper, it might be a safer choice to wait until some of the significant challenges are sorted out before you splash the cash.
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